When I look out into the world, I wonder why some technologies, institutions, or policies rarely change. Just look around your environment, and you may begin to ponder the same thing. From the chair you’re sitting in right now, or the social welfare program that’s constantly under scrutiny, some things are difficult or even nonsensical to change. But, as we can all admit, sometimes change is needed to make progress. Yet, why is that when we do try to change, it is almost impossible? In many instances, you can chalk it up to resistance, but in some cases, our efforts are thwarted by our past.
When past decisions, assumptions, or values influence an institution’s ability to change, it’s called path dependence. The term, path dependence, which has its origin in economic thought, has broad applications. But, in essence, it means that historic decisions are constraining options. This theory is most common in the political realm of policymaking, where a confluence of bureaucracy, constituents, political associations, and a myriad of other factors make enacting wholesale change extremely difficult. In addition to policymaking, there are countless other examples in the private sector:
Healthcare networks are dependent on various brands of electronic healthcare records, even though they are cumbersome to maintain, inaccurate, do not integrate into other systems well, and are expensive.
The restaurant industry is dependent on the tipped employee wage policy, even though it’s a questionable form of wage payment.
Uber, Lyft, and other gig economy companies are dependent on contract law to reduce costs, even though their contractors don’t have the same benefits or rights as traditional employees do.
The most perplexing of all examples is the QWERTY keyboard. Invented in 1868 by Christopher Latham Sholes to manage key jamming, the QWERTY keyboard has stuck with us for over 150 years, even though tested alternatives have proven to be more efficient.
Why should this matter to you?
Not only does path dependence influence policymaking and technical decisions, but unbeknownst to you, it can impact your progress towards your goals. In my own life, my preference for a quiet apartment leads to the cost of a longer commute. As a side note, the concepts of path dependence and opportunity costs are almost married (though we can leave that discussion for another time) as when you choose a path, you are reducing your universe of options as you enter the path. But, unlike some decision-makers who operate under rigid constraints, you shouldn’t feel that you have to stick with what you’ve started. As a single person, you have the flexibility to course-correct.
Ultimately, there are a few ways to intelligently manage path dependence without being paralyzed by the fact that what you’re starting with is certainly not the most optimal path towards your goal.
Option 1: Enumerate values, assumptions, judgements, etc.
Before choosing any path, it’s wise to understand what your ultimate goal is. This goal will define the steps or systems you implement to achieve your end. At a minimum, you should enumerate your values so you can create some guardrails surrounding your path. This will help define what you’re willing and not willing to do. With this mind, choosing a path becomes easier.
Take, for instance, choosing a community volunteer group. Let’s say you want to volunteer in a group focused on youth development and fostering teamwork. You’d begin your path towards being a community contributor by searching for an organization where those concepts are most common, such as in sports. Once you get involved, it will be easier to stay engaged and committed since the group’s values align with your values.
Option 2: Experiment
Consider experimenting with various paths before committing to one. In this scenario, you’ll feel much more confident and comfortable as you progress down the path towards your solution. The reason for this is that you’ve explored, which is the key to finding out what you don’t know. As you discover more, you’ll gradually understand the limitations of the path for your own benefit. With these limitations in mind, you’ll be trending towards a path that is most suitable for you.
As an example, consider the process behind choosing a diet to stick with. But, as you try each one, consider the limitations of each diet in the long-term. Is it suitable for your lifestyle? For your taste preferences? Knowing how far you’re willing to go will help you reach the optimal diet, and help you choose a path you can stick with.
Option 3: Don’t be afraid to change your process
When your chosen path to your goal fails, you should feel no shame in trying other means. If you are flexible, you can make tweaks to adjust your path and still reach your expected outcome. This is easier said than done, but accepting failure is the first step towards path correction, and ultimately victory.
Most coaches can attest to this as their gameplans can change at halftime. How many times have you seen Bill Belichick update his gameplan, to absolutely shut down the other team in the second half? The only way to change your path is to reflect and assess what’s going wrong.
Conclusion
Unlike some decision-makers, you don’t need to succumb to path dependence. By being aware of the concept and understanding its consequences, you can thoroughly craft your values, test approaches, adjust at inflection points, and ultimately get to and stay on a path towards your goals. Apply some patience, embrace that it’s all a process, and path dependence shouldn’t be a blocker, but rather a concept that can help you make better decisions and be more confident in your path.
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